July Payrolls Miss Expectations At 187K, Follow Big Downward Revisions, But Unemployment Rate Drops And Earnings Come In Hot

Today’s jobs report was a story of two opposites: on one hand, the month-to-month payrolls change for July missed expectations of 200K (and positively the whisper variety of 222K) printing at 187K, which might have been down from 200K and the bottom since Dec 2020… if solely June wasn’t revised sharply decrease to 185K (extra on that under).

Today’s report was the second consecutive miss in a row for a collection that till June had barely seen any disappointments in practically two years.

In maintaining in with Biden admin’s penchant of continually fabricating information, each May and June numbers have been revised sharply decrease after all:

• May revised down by 25,000, from +306,000 to +281,000
• June was revised down by 24,000, from +209,000 to +185,000.

To present simply how ridiculous the information manipulation is, contemplate this chart – each month-to-month payrolls report in 2023 has been revised decrease.

But whereas the headline numbers have been ugly – if nonetheless permitting the White House to assert victory for a 2K rebound from the downward revised June print, the place the Fed shall be scratching its head is within the unemployment price which unexpectedly dropped again to three.5% from 3.6% (and lacking exp of an unchanged print), which means that the Fed’s expectations for an unemployment price spike to 4% by year-end must be revised or Powell must hike much more.

While the jobless price for Blacks dipped to five.8%, that for Hispanics (4.4%) rose whereas whites (3.1%) have been unchanged.

There was extra confusion within the wage numbers, with common hourly earnings coming in hotter than the 4.2% Y/Y anticipated, at 4.4% or unchanged from final month; on a month-to-month foundation the rise was 0.4%, hotter than the 0.3% anticipated and matching final month’s improve.

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