Power Grid Facing ‘Elevated Risk’ of Summer Outages, Warns Reliability Watchdog

More than two-thirds of North America might see electrical outages when temperatures spike this coming summer season as a result of utilities in lots of areas would not have enough reserve era capability to fulfill surges in demand.

According to an annual summer season reliability evaluation printed on May 17 by the watchdog North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the ability grid in at the very least eight areas of the United States and one in Ontario, Canada, face elevated threat of brown-outs and black-outs throughout warmth waves between June and September, attributed at the very least partially to the disruption being attributable to the rising reliance on so-called “green” energies that advocates wish to see supplant fossil fuels.

Windmills and photo voltaic panels are proven in Kahuku, Hawaii, on Aug. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Caleb Jones)

“The elevated risk profiles that we’re seeing are driven by a combination of conventional generation retirements seen over the last couple of years, a substantial increase in forecasted peak demand and new loads coming—we are electrifying more than we ever had in the past,” NERC Director of Reliability John Moura informed reporters throughout a convention name following the discharge of the evaluation.

NERC is a not-for-profit public-private entity that gives the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and state regulators with reliability assessments of {the electrical} grid from Canada to northern Mexico.

The report (pdf) cites the “rapidly-changing resource mix” pushed by President Joe Biden’s purpose to “decarbonize” the U.S. electrical grid by 2035 as spurring a disjointed transition from oil, gasoline, and pure gasoline to renewable energies, comparable to wind, photo voltaic, and nuclear, earlier than the grid can alter and broaden transmission capacities.

“The drivers here are demand growth and generation retirements that take away from dispatchable generation that is needed to maintain reliability over a range of conditions,” NERC Reliability Assessments Manager Mark Olson stated.

‘No Surprises’ in Report

National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) Executive Director Greg R. White informed The Epoch Times that whereas he had not carried out a deep dive on NERC’s evaluation as but, its warning of summer season energy outages incorporates “no surprises.”

“The pace in which we are closing fossil fuel plants is exceeding the pace that we are bringing new plants online,” White stated. “If you are paying attention to what is going on in this industry, the industry has been saying the transition [from fossil fuels to renewables] would be challenging.”

Senior Regulatory Counsel for the American Public Power Association (APPA) John McCaffrey concurred.

“NERC’s conclusions reinforce APPA’s concerns about the reliability ramifications associated with the pace of the resource transition in the United States,” he informed The Epoch Times by e-mail.

“APPA also shares NERC’s concerns about the potential adverse reliability impacts of the current critical shortage of distribution transformers, and we agree with NERC that new distribution transformer efficiency standards recently proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy could worsen the transformer supply shortage.”

The NERC report maintains that constraints on pure gasoline and coal supply infrastructure, new federal environmental restrictions, provide chain points, declining water ranges close to some hydropower vegetation, and “unexpected tripping” of wind and photo voltaic assets all contribute to the uncertainty.

The evaluation states that new environmental guidelines that limit energy plant emissions will restrict the operation of coal-fired mills in 23 states.

Those new guidelines embrace most notably the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) “Good Neighbor Plan,” finalized in March, to make sure the 23 states meet the Clean Air Act’s “Good Neighbor” smog necessities “by reducing pollution that significantly contributes to problems attaining and maintaining the EPA’s health-based air quality standard for ground- level ozone in downwind states.”

The almost certainly manner the coal- and pure gas-fired vegetation will meet these clear air requirements is “by limiting hours of operation in this first year of implementation rather than through adding emissions control equipment,” in line with NERC’s evaluation.

“As this assessment underscores, EPA’s regulatory blitz is already threatening the reliable delivery of power and undermining efforts to tame energy-driven inflation,” National Mining Association (NMA) president and CEO Rich Nolan stated.

“The nation is firmly in a grid reliability crisis that will only grow more acute if [the] EPA continues to drive an agenda that forces the closure of the essential generating capacity that underpins grid reliability before reliable alternatives, and their supporting infrastructure, are in place,” Nolan stated in an announcement. “With rising electricity demand a new reality—driven by electrification—we should be building on the shoulders of our existing coal fleet, not imposing a suite of mandates to tear it down.”

Epoch Times Photo
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized 9 regional grids in North America that face elevated threat of energy outages this summer season. (Courtesy North American Electric Reliability Corporation)

Grid Update

The regional grids most in danger are: the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which manages grids in 15 states and the Canadian province of Manitoba; Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) New England, which incorporates utilities in seven states and the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Québec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia; SERC-Central, which spans 16 southeastern and south-central states; Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which incorporates utilities and transmission firms in 17 states; Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which provides energy to greater than 25 million Texans and represents 90 p.c of the state’s electrical load; The Western Interconnection, which serves greater than 80 million clients throughout all or half of 14 states, Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta, and the northern reaches of Baja California in Mexico; and NPPC-Ontario.

According to NERC, all of the regional grids are anticipated to fulfill calls for throughout regular operations.

In the MISO grid, the evaluation states that “the risk of being unable to meet reserve requirements at peak demand this summer … is lower now than in 2022” and that it ought to “have sufficient resources … for normal summer peak demand.”

But the query right here in addition to in different regional grids, NERC maintains, is “wind generator performance during periods of high demand.”

Since NERC says in its evaluation that the MISO grid will depend on wind to fulfill surges in demand, consequently, “MISO can face challenges in meeting above-normal peak demand if wind generator energy output is lower than expected.”

In NPCC-New England’s grid, emergency assets and provides “from neighboring areas are likely to be needed during more extreme demand or low resource conditions” and in NPCC-Ontario, a deliberate offline refurbishment of a nuclear energy plant and a “constrained transmission network” might trigger energy outages, with the Windsor-Essex space being significantly susceptible, NERC stated.

SERC-Central can maintain regular demand. But whereas its grid era capability has remained flat, “forecasted peak demand has risen by over 950 megawatts (MW).” Meanwhile, within the SPP grid, reserve margins have dipped in response to “declining anticipated resources.”

“Like MISO,” NERC stated, “the energy output of SPP’s wind generators during periods of high demand is a key factor in determining whether there is sufficient electricity supply on the system. SPP can face energy challenges in meeting extreme peak demand or managing periods of thermal or hydro generator outages if wind resource energy output is below normal.”

In ERCOT’s grid,  NERC documented “strong growth in both resources and forecasted demand,” which means that offer to the grid is enough for regular operations however, with the infusion of inexperienced energies within the combine, has not been examined in a peak demand surge.

Since 2022, ERCOT has added greater than 4 gigawatts (GW) of new photo voltaic era capability. NERC stated that “load reductions from dispatchable demand response programs have grown by over 18 percent to total 3,380 MWs.”

With financial growth on ERCOT’s grid driving a 6 p.c improve in demand, “dispatchable generation may not be sufficient to meet reserves during an extreme heat-wave that is accompanied by low winds,” the evaluation states.

In the Western Interconnection grid, “wide-area heat events” threat creating vitality provide shortfalls as a result of “each area [in the sprawling grid] relies on regional transfers to meet demand at peak and the late afternoon to evening hours when energy output from the area’s vast solar PV resources are diminished.”

Epoch Times Photo
A regulation enforcement officer watches flames launch into the air as fireplace continues to unfold on the Bear fireplace in Oroville, Calif., on Sept. 9, 2020. (JOSH EDELSON/AFP by way of Getty Images)

Wildfire can also be a threat the area’s transmission community, NERC stated, noting that fires “often accompany these wide-area heat events, can limit electricity transfers, and result in localized load shedding.”

Dual Bottleneck Looming

NARUC’s White famous that whereas NERC has recognized 9 “elevated risk” areas, this yr’s pre-summer evaluation has not designated any grids as being at “high risk” of going darkish.

“If there was any surprise, it is that [the assessment] is not worse than it was,” he stated. “I guess I would have expected to see at least a few ‘high risk’ areas. Maybe that means we are doing better than we thought.”

The summers are getting hotter, White stated, with warmth waves inflicting energy demand surges in areas the place such occasions have been uncommon.

Sustained warmth waves can “change the dynamics of the grid,” he stated. “The grid operates on [a] highly sensitive level of balancing. It doesn’t take much to lose that balance. We are always at risk of something happening in the system.”

White stated that utilities and transmission firms are discovering it tough “to keep up with the transition” and that monetary pressures from a surge of funding into renewables is creating “some opportunities for arbitrage through using transmission.”

NERC’s evaluation confirms what Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Commissioner Mark Christie informed the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee in a May 4 listening to.

“The United States is heading for a reliability crisis,” he stated. “I do not use the term ‘crisis’ for melodrama but because it is an accurate description of what we are facing,” Christie stated. “I think anyone would regard an increasing threat of system-wide, extensive power outages as a crisis.”

Committee chair Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) and rating Republican Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) have warned that “premature fossil retirements” amid rising demand for energy are the consequence of Biden’s inexperienced vitality initiatives handed in 2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which incentivized investments in renewable vitality.

The incentives have confirmed efficient in inducing investor curiosity—possibly too efficiently, with tasks being proposed and authorised ahead of anticipated and quicker than the grid’s transmission capability is increasing.

There have been roughly 10,000 vitality tasks in April designed to supply greater than 2,000 GW of collective energy—though not reliably—ready for permits from federal and state companies to connect with electrical grids throughout the United States.

That is roughly twice the collective electrical energy output of the 1,250 GW now being produced by all of the nation’s energy vegetation—most of which have been constructed to reliably generate energy on demand utilizing fossil fuels.

The twin bottleneck of the grid’s restricted transmission infrastructure and fossil gas vegetation being retired at a charge quicker than new vegetation utilizing unreliable renewable vitality sources are being constructed to exchange them may have rather a lot of folks listening to climate forecasts this summer season, NMA’s Nolan stated.

“This assessment is another clear warning that large swaths of the country face the very real threat of blackouts should the weather not cooperate this summer,” he stated.

“The nation is increasingly short of the dispatchable capacity it needs to maintain resource adequacy during periods of peak demand. Hoping that the weather cooperates to avoid catastrophic consequences for American families can’t be an acceptable status quo.”

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