By Matthew Raskin and Steven Zeng, DB Rates Strategists
Market pricing for the fed funds price path implies a roughly 70% likelihood of softlanding vs. recession. Given our view that recession is extra possible than not, this interprets into a lovely payoff to front-end receivers. Returns to ahead curve steepeners throughout Fed pauses hinge on the extent to which the Fed cuts greater than ex-ante priced. Given this, the payoff to ahead steepeners as we speak additionally appears favorable, much more so resulting from components boosting time period premia.
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