Stocks and yields rise after NFP, hawkish Mester and hot ISM – Newsquawk US Market Wrap

  • SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up
  • REAR VIEW: NFP beats however unemployment fee jumps, wages cool; Manufacturing ISM hotter than forecast; Strong development spending; Mester downplays dovish points of jobs report; AVGO earnings disappoint; TSLA cuts costs within the US and China.
  • WEEK AHEAD: Highlights embrace RBA and BoC fee selections, US ISM Services PMI and China Trade Data. To obtain the report, please click here.
  • CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: Previewing RBA and BoC fee selections; Reviewing ECB Minutes. To obtain the report, please click here

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:


Stocks had been predominantly firmer on Friday, however the cyclical Russel 2000 outperformed its friends supported by upside in regional banks, whereas the Nasdaq was the laggard on account of greater yields and as Tesla (TSLA) tumbled following US and China worth cuts. The spotlight of the day was the US NFP report which noticed headline are available above expectations, however the unemployment fee shot as much as 3.8% from 3.5%; wages cooled, confirming the indicators lately of a slowing labour market. The knee jerk dovish response pared shortly after, nonetheless, as Fed hawk Mester (2024) downplayed a number of the extra dovish points of the report, noting how the unemployment fee continues to be low and careworn an information dependent stance for future selections. An additional unwind was seen after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI outcomes, which got here in above consensus expectations, significantly in costs paid element – albeit the sector nonetheless stays in contractionary territory with readings sub-50. FOMC pricing had moved dovishly, with markets nearly absolutely pricing in its first lower in May 2024, whereas the chances of one other hike in November had diminished. Elsewhere, crude costs continued their ascent with contributors eyeing subsequent week’s OPEC+ manufacturing lower announcement from Russia, with eyes additionally on Nigeria manufacturing amid looming labour strikes. In FX, the Dollar outperformed whereas cyclical currencies, GBP and CAD, had been the underperformers. The Treasury curve ultimately bear-steepened in wake of the aforementioned information and Fedspeak, maybe with place squaring additionally an element after the T-notice rally seen this week and as we enter the lengthy weekend on account of the US Labor Day.


NFP: The NFP headline printed 187k in August, above expectations of 170k, although the prior was revised all the way down to 157k from 187k initially reported. Meanwhile, the 2 month web revisions had been -110k, once more displaying how latest information has been liable to downward revisions, and could not have been as sturdy as initially implied. The key determine immediately was the unemployment fee, which jumped to the very best degree since March 2022 to three.8% from 3.5%, regardless of expectations for an unchanged print, which got here alongside a bounce within the participation fee too, which rose to 62.8% from 62.6%, edging nearer to the Fed’s yr-finish unemployment fee forecast of 4.1% (that was pencilled in June, with the Fed set to supply up to date projections in September). The rise in unemployment was additionally coupled with softer wages, with month-to-month earnings rising by 0.2%, beneath the anticipated 0.3% and beneath the prior 0.4%, seeing the slowest achieve since Feb 2022. The annual earnings determine was 4.3% Y/Y, beneath the expectation of an unchanged tempo of 4.4%. Overall, the report was judged as dovish, and in a direct response, resulted in a decrease implied likelihood of one other hike from the Fed, with simply 10bps of hikes priced in for November, implying a 40% likelihood of a hike vs 50% pre-information, whereas September nonetheless leans closely in direction of an unchanged determination. Looking forward, fee cuts are nearly absolutely priced by May 2024, with a slight likelihood of an earlier lower in March. Overall, the info helps the views that Fed fee hikes are behind us, and it’s more likely to be welcomed by the Fed given they need a slowing labour market to assist with their battle towards inflation. However, with September largely seen as a skip, there may be quite a lot of give attention to inflation, and there may be nonetheless loads of information between now and the November assembly for the Fed to make their thoughts up, however the upcoming CPI report on September thirteenth will assist cement these expectations additional. It is probably going the Fed will maintain optionality open nonetheless, retaining their information dependent stance, however it’s clear each the labour market and inflation has been slowing and expectations for extra hikes are dwindling.

ISM MANUFACTURING PMI: The ISM Manufacturing PMI information rose above expectations to 47.6 (exp. 47.0) from 46.4, remaining in contractionary territory, however not as deep as July. The costs paid element noticed a notable enhance, rising to 48.4 from 42.6, above the 43.9 expectation, which nonetheless implies costs are falling, simply at a slower fee than beforehand, on condition that the studying continues to be sub-50. Employment was additionally “strong”, rising to 48.5 from 44.4, regardless of expectations for a decline to 44.2. New orders nonetheless declined to 46.8 from 47.3. Overall, the report alluded to a slowing decline in manufacturing, however all parts nonetheless stay in contractionary territory; ING notes that this report stays in keeping with a GDP slowdown, stating that this was the tenth consecutive month of producing in contraction.

CONSTRUTCTION SPENDING: US Construction Spending was hot in July, rising 0.7% M/M, above the 0.5% expectation, whereas the prior was revised as much as 0.6% from 0.5%. Private development rose by 1%, whereas residential development +1.4%, and non-residential +0.5%. Public development rose 0.4%, with instructional development +0.1% and freeway development +0.6%. Oxford Economics writes that development spending continued at a strong tempo, however the drivers have shifted: “with residential spending stabilising after a year of declines, and the prior boom in factory construction levelling off.” The consultancy additionally notes that with “spending still rising at a decent clip, overall investment growth appears to have remained solid at the beginning of the third quarter.” The desk goes on to warn residential spending may see renewed strain because of greater mortgage charges over the approaching months, which may have a chilling impact on new development, whereas a weaker labour market will even undermine residence demand.

FED: Fed’s Mester (non-voter, hawk), in wake of the roles report, mentioned the roles market was nonetheless sturdy amid indicators of rebalancing, acknowledging that employment development has slowed, however at 3.8% the jobless fee continues to be low. She repeated that inflation stays too excessive, however she does see progress on decreasing worth pressures. Mester reiterated the primary Fed debate is how restrictive coverage must turn into and for a way lengthy, repeating future Fed coverage selections will likely be based mostly on incoming information and that the Fed should stability dangers when setting rate of interest coverage.


Treasuries bear steepened after a bounce within the unemployment fee and hotter than anticipated ISM manufacturing survey whereas Mester downplays dovish jobs report. At settlement, 2s +0.7bps at 4.866%, 3s +2.6bps at 4.572%, 5s +4.7bps at 4.289%, 7s +6.6bps at 4.257%, 10s +8.0bps at 4.171%, 20s +8.6bps at 4.476%, 30s +8.3bps at 4.287%

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI +3.6bps at 2.313%, 10yr BEI +2.9bps at 2.272%, 30yr BEI +2.8bps at 2.265%.

THE DAY: Treasuries traded sideways in a single day and by means of the European morning in anticipation of the NFP report which noticed uneven worth motion. The headline beat accompanied by a downward revision and a shock bounce within the unemployment fee total confirmed the roles market within the US is cooling, which noticed T-Notes spike to session highs with the 10yr yield simply dipping beneath 4.06%, the bottom since tenth August. The transfer was quick-lived nonetheless and steadily pared into commentary from Fed hawk Mester and the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey, which got here in above consensus expectations, albeit nonetheless in contractionary territory. T-notes took a success in wake of Mester’s commentary who took out a number of the dovishness of the report, exclaiming the roles market continues to be sturdy and that the three.8% unemployment fee continues to be low, while sustaining an information dependent stance for future selections. Further promoting strain was seen on the bounce within the manufacturing costs paid element, including to considerations in regards to the progress on decrease items costs. However, it’s price stressing it nonetheless remained in contractionary territory, due to this fact it nonetheless slowed in August, simply at a slower tempo than July. T-notes continued decrease all through the session the place the 10yr yields hit a excessive of 4.2%, earlier than paring steadily into settlement in quiet commerce forward of the labour day vacation on Monday. The total response to cash market pricing was a dovish one, the place the NFP report noticed prospects of one other Fed hike diminish considerably whereas fee cuts had been briefly absolutely priced in for May 2024. The manufacturing ISM nonetheless noticed this marginally unwind, with now c. 23bps of cuts priced for May, nearly absolutely priced for the primary 25bp lower, with a danger of an earlier lower in March. Attention will lie closely on the August CPI report due September thirteenth, throughout Fed blackout, to assist sway expectations, however for now, the September assembly is certain to be a skip whereas the Fed assesses extra information forward of November.


  • SR3U3 +1.0bps at 94.598, Z3 +0.5bps at 94.605, H4 +0.0bps at 94.800, M4 -1.0bps at 95.105, U4 -1.5bps at 95.470, Z4 -1.5bps at 95.815, H5 -2.0bps at 96.080, M5 -3.0bps at 96.245, U5 -3.5bps at 96.330, U6 -6.5bps at 96.395, U7 -8.0bps at 96.350
  • NY Fed RRP Op demand at 1.574tln (prev. 1.652tln) throughout 94 bidders (prev. 105).
  • SOFR flat at 5.30% as of Aug thirty first, volumes rise to USD 1.549tln from 1.311tln.
  • EFFR flat at 5.33% as of Aug thirty first, volumes fall to USD 97bln from 100bln.



Oil costs had been bid on Friday after the most recent NFP report unwound some expectations for extra fee hikes whereas there are extra provide considerations after Nigeria’s primary labour union introduced it intends to undertake strikes as eyes flip to Russia’s OPEC+ lower deal announcement subsequent week. The good points in oil got here regardless of a stronger buck which was seen after a warmer than anticipated ISM manufacturing PMI report, albeit the report nonetheless confirmed the manufacturing sector is slowing, simply not as shortly because it was the prior month. Still, an enormous bounce within the costs paid was sufficient to maintain the greenback bid, however the crude complicated nonetheless trended greater. It is unclear how a lot influence the Nigerian strikes can have on the nation’s oil manufacturing, however the NNPC famous Nigeria is presently pumping 1.67mln BPD of oil and condensates, and we are going to look to updates to this determine as strikes happen. In Russia, the Kirshi oil refinery reportedly halted operations following an incident at a neighbouring energy plant, in line with Reuters sources, albeit particulars are gentle. Loads of the transfer is a continuation of the value motion seen on Thursday after Russia introduced it’ll unveil its new OPEC+ provide lower deal whereas Saudi Arabia are extensively anticipated to increase the voluntary 1mln BPD oil manufacturing cuts into October. However, with Iran turning on the faucets, the most recent Bloomberg survey famous the OPEC August crude output rose 40k BPD to 27.82mln BPD, holding regular as Saudi curbs offset Iran good points. Note, the Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count information noticed drillers depart oil rigs unchanged at 512, whereas natgas rigs had been down 1 to 114, with the entire down 1 to 613.

In NatGas, Chevron (CVX) Australia and unions are assembly subsequent week for talks in mediation within the LNG amenities dispute. However, in a single day, Chevron’s (CVX) Australia LNG employees rejected the Co’s bargaining provide, in line with unions; lower than 1% of the Wheatstone and Gorgon downstream workforce voted in help of the provide, in line with Reuters. Current industrial motion plan may see instruments downed for as much as 11 hours and the halt for sure duties from September seventh till a minimum of the 14th.


CLOSES: SPX +0.18% at 4,516, NDX -0.07% at 15,491, DJI +0.34% at 34,838, RUT +1.11% at 1,921.

SECTORS: Energy +2.06%, Materials +1.02%, Financials +0.80%, Industrials +0.51%, Health +0.23%, Technology +0.22%, Real Estate -0.07%, Utilities -0.52%, Communication Services -0.54%, Consumer Discretionary -0.54%, Consumer Staples -0.83%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX -0.67% at 15,840, FTSE 100 +0.34% at 7,464, CAC 40 -0.27% at 7,297, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.36% at 4,282, IBEX 35 -0.59% at 9,450, FTSE MIB -0.64% at 28,648, SMI -0.49% at 11,072, PSI +0.13% at 6,182.

STOCK SPECIFICSDell (DELL) beat on EPS and income, with breakdown income sturdy, alongside stellar steerage. Next quarter outlook topped expectations and it lifted the FY view. Following earnings, Morgan Stanley named Dell a prime choose in IT {hardware}. Walgreens (WBA) CEO introduced she is to step down and Ginger Graham has been appointed interim CEO, with search course of to establish a everlasting CEO underway. As a end result, co. cuts FY23 adj. EPS view to the low finish of 4-4.05 vary. Broadcom (AVGO) posted a good report, the place revenue and adj. EBITDA beat with income as anticipated whereas This autumn steerage extra-or-much less in line, disappointing some traders. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat on EPS, income, and comps. Q3 steerage was higher-than-anticipated and it raised the FY income information. Elastic (ESTC) smashed present quarter expectations along with offering stellar steerage. MongoDB (MDB) beat on EPS and income as administration drives prime-line development; co. additionally posted spectacular margin growth and lifted the FY and subsequent quarter outlook. VMware (VMW) beat on EPS however missed on income. Chevron (CVX) Australia and unions are to satisfy for mediation talks subsequent week in LNG amenities dispute, in line with Reuters citing sources. Meta (META) could enable Instagram and Facebook customers in Europe to pay and keep away from advertisements, in line with NYT. Humana (HUM) sued the US authorities to dam a coverage that may enable Medicare to claw again billions of {dollars} in funds to insurance coverage firms. Amgen (AMGN) settled with the FTC on the USD 27.8bln Horizon (HZNP) deal, in line with Bloomberg. Booking (BKNG) intends to problem the EU veto of the Etraveli deal, by way of Reuters citing sources. Nio (NIO) delivered 19,329 automobiles in August, +81% Y/Y. Tesla (TSLA) lower costs for the US and China Model S and X automobiles. US FTC received a key victory in its lengthy operating investigation and lawsuit over Intuit’s (INTU) tax commercials for its tax prep service, Turbotax, in line with Politico; Intuit says it’ll enchantment, nonetheless stays dedicated to free tax preparation.


Buck rattled by NFP, however bolstered by sturdy manufacturing ISM

USD/CAD: The Greenback remained on observe (narrowly) to interrupt a multi-week successful streak, however after retreating in wake of a weak US jobs report it rebounded firmly on the again of a robust manufacturing ISM, with the DXY posting a brand new 104.240 session excessive from deeper 103.260 put up-NFP low. To recap, headline payrolls printed at 187k in August vs 170k anticipated, however got here with a web -110k two month again revision, a shock rise within the unemployment fee, to three.8% from 3.5% and softer than forecast common earnings. Conversely, the manufacturing ISM beat consensus, at 47.6, costs paid jumped to 48.4 and the employment element to 48.5 vs 47.0, 43.9 and 44.2 anticipated respectively. However, market pricing barely budged on the latter having already tilted nearer in direction of 100% for no change in charges at this month’s FOMC coverage assembly, and the index remained a ways from w-t-d peak set on Tuesday, at 104.360, when month finish rebalancing was supportive together with different bullish components. The Dollar subsequently waned after a much bigger than anticipated decline in JOLTS job openings and hit a low ebb (102.920 in DXY phrases) when ADP missed, Q2 GDP was downgraded within the second launch together with quarterly PCE costs. Pending residence gross sales had been above forecast afterward Wednesday and helped the Buck bounce, whereas the extra well timed July PCE inflation information was largely a non-occasion on condition that Fed Chair Powell already spilled the numbers, albeit alluding to a firmer than precise y/y core, however a blow-out Chicago manufacturing PMI was clearly predictive. From a psychological perspective, any shut above 104.000 within the index could be constructive and 104.190+ may show actually bullish as that’s the place the DXY signed off final Friday. Aiding its US rival’s trigger, the Loonie collapsed from 1.3490 in direction of 1.3600 and not removed from the present 1.3637 weekly low in response to a shock and comparatively steep Q2 annualised Canadian GDP contraction, to not point out the manufacturing PMI slipping additional sub-50 to cement expectations for the BoC to stay on maintain. Indeed, the spike in Usd/Cad was hardly impeded by a power in crude costs exacerbated by Nigeria’s primary labour union planning warning strikes on fifth and sixth September to protest towards the rising value of residing earlier than a complete and indefinite shutdown of the nation from September twenty first.

GBP/AUD/EUR/JPY/NZD/CHF: All made means for his or her US peer’s late revival and unable to keep away from being caught within the scramble that will nicely have been compounded by the truth that Monday is Labour Day. The Pound may feasibly have gleaned extra traction from one other spherical of feedback from BoE Chief Economist Pill who reiterated that the MPC must be significantly cautious about letting an inflation persistence dynamic set in because it has not but seen a downturn in core inflation that may reassure us. On the flip-aspect, he additionally one choice for coverage is to carry charges regular for longer and he tends to favour that strategy. Regardless, Cable careered from 1.2712 to 1.2595 inside wider w-t-d 1.2746-1.2564 extremes. Elsewhere, the Aussie retreated by means of 0.6500 for a 3rd time and misplaced some cohesion with the Yuan after mushy month-to-month CPI and considerably worse than feared constructing approvals outweighed an upward revision to last retail gross sales and again the consensus for no change from the RBA. On that notice, there have been sufficient references to a deteriorating Eurozone economic system from even probably the most hawkish ECB members and a softer than anticipated core CPI print to scupper the Euro by way of dovish repricing for this month’s assembly, no matter hotter than forecast German and French nationwide inflation information. Hence, Eur/Usd recoiled from 1.0881 in direction of the 1.0783 weekly base having made false breaks of the 100 DMA earlier within the week and topping out at 1.0945 towards the backdrop of huge, expansive choice expiry curiosity. Meanwhile, the Yen continued to trace UST-JGB spreads following dovish steerage from BoJ Governor Ueda on the finish of Jackson Hole and different Board members thereafter with the attainable exception of Tamura who personally feels that the sustained and steady achievement of the Bank’s 2% inflation goal is in sight. However, Usd/Jpy reversed sharply from 147.38 on Tuesday to 144.45 put up-US labour information earlier than rebounding again over 146.00, and the correction seemed partly technical, positional and month finish-associated given little change in Japanese fundamentals. Back down below, the Kiwi didn’t derive a lot lasting impetus from encouraging enhancements in ANZ enterprise or client sentiment as Nzd/Usd pale between 0.6014-0.5888 parameters, and it was an analogous story for the Franc inside 0.8549-0.8860 bounds in context of barely firmer than anticipated Swiss y/y CPI, albeit different macro indicators had been downbeat.

SCANDI/EM: No lower than three Riksbank officers, together with Governor Thedeen tried to speak up the Sek, however to little avail however Floden asserting that it’s 20% undervalued. In distinction, the Nok was cushioned by buoyant Brent after the Norges Bank nudged up its day by day quota of overseas foreign money purchases for September in comparison with final month, and the Cny/Cnh had been boosted by quite a few Chinese stimulus measures, extraordinarily weighted PBoC reference charges, main state banks reducing depo and mortgage charges and a hefty 200 bp RRR discount to take impact from September fifteenth. Turkish banks got here out in help of the Try but once more and the CBRT repeated steerage for extra tightening as applicable to make sure the disinflation course of will get underway by the beginning of 2024, however Banxico known as time on the Peso’s appreciation by way of notification that it’ll let its hedge guide that’s quick Usd/Mxn roll down.


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