Politics

Trump Tops Haley by 16 in NH, DeSantis Losing to ‘Undecided’

The latest polling out of New Hampshire exhibits former President Trump up 16 factors over former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC). The Donald can be topping the magic 50 p.c mark.

“[N]ew polling data from Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and NBC10 Boston … conducted among 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters over two days” exhibits Trump sitting fairly at 50.4 p.c assist. Haley is in a distant second place with 33.8 p.c.

The final humiliation in this ballot is that “undecided” beats Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 5.8 p.c to 5.2 p.c.

Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida and 2024 Republican presidential candidate, speaks throughout a marketing campaign occasion, December 10, 2023. (Christian Monterrosa/Bloomberg through Getty)

Only 2.8 p.c selected “someone else.”

This is the primary New Hampshire ballot I’ve come throughout taken since former Gov. Chris Christie (R-Narcissist) dropped out of the race. Knowing he had no likelihood, Christie eliminated himself to increase Haley in Iowa, and particularly in New Hampshire.

Christie leaving the race didn’t assist Haley a lot in Monday night time’s Iowa Caucus. Trump walked away with 51 p.c assist and a document victory. Haley got here in a distant third with simply 19.1 p.c. Granted, Christie was not polling nicely in Iowa, the place he selected not to marketing campaign. But Haley was in a decent race for a second-place displaying in Iowa. Christie’s assist might have been sufficient to prime DeSantis, however DeSantis beat her with 21.2 p.c assist.

Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and 2024 Republican presidential candidate, January 15, 2024. (Rachel Mummey/Bloomberg through Getty)

New Hampshire, nonetheless, is a special story. Before this newest ballot, Christie averaged 11 p.c assist in the Granite State. Haley averaged 31.3 p.c. Trump earned 44.5 p.c. So, for the final week or so, the query has been…

Where will Christie’s New Hampshire assist go?

The greatest approach to analyze that is an apples-to-apples comparability. In the earlier Boston Globe/Suffolk ballot taken the primary week of this month, Trump earned 46 p.c assist, Haley 26 p.c, and Christie 12 p.c.

This identical ballot right this moment reveals that with out Christie, Trump’s assist jumped +4 to 50.4 p.c, and Haley is up +8 at 34 p.c. If you attribute these bumps to Christie dropping out, Haley scored the larger bump however nothing shut to what she wanted to win.

It’s additionally price noting that right this moment’s ballot was taken over Monday and Tuesday, which suggests half the ballot was taken earlier than Trump’s blow-out Iowa win. Until this monitoring ballot is launched tomorrow, we gained’t understand how or if Trump’s Iowa triumph scrambled the New Hampshire recreation.

Equally troubling for Haley is the truth that Trump’s assist is rock-hard. When requested if their vote was for Trump or in opposition to Haley, 90.48 p.c of Trump supporters stated “for Donald Trump.”

When Haley supporters had been requested if their vote was for Haley or in opposition to Trump, solely 53.85 p.c stated their vote was for Haley, whereas 37.28 p.c stated in opposition to Trump.

In the RealClearPolitics average poll of New Hampshire GOP major polls, there isn’t any query Haley is having fun with some momentum. In mid-December, Trump topped her by 27 factors, 49 p.c to 19 p.c. Over these final 30 days, she has narrowed that to 13.2 factors, 44.5 to 31.3 p.c. Still, even in the unlikely occasion she wins New Hampshire, Trump is at present up 30 points in the subsequent major state, which can be Haley’s house state.

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