By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk
Wharton professors say Ideas Are Dimes a Dozen they usually put that idea to a check. But how does one decide a good suggestion? And what does higher imply?
Wharton notes the distinction between consistency and higher. For instance, an airplane pilot who lands plane with common smoothness 10 occasions out of 10 is best than one who’s good 9 occasions out of 10 and crashes as soon as.
With concepts, one improbable concept and 10 poor ones is best than 10 common ones. With that backdrop let’s dive into the article.
Abstract: ChatGPT-4 can generate concepts a lot sooner and cheaper than college students, and the concepts are on common of upper high quality (as measured by purchase-intent surveys) and exhibit greater variance in high quality. More essential, the overwhelming majority of one of the best concepts within the pooled pattern are generated by ChatGPT and never by the scholars. Providing ChatGPT with just a few examples of extremely rated concepts additional will increase its efficiency. We talk about the implications of those findings for the administration of innovation.
Introduction: Generative synthetic intelligence has made exceptional advances in creating life-like pictures and coherent, fluent textual content. OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot, based mostly on the GPT sequence of massive language fashions (LLM) can equal or surpass human efficiency in educational examinations and checks for skilled certifications (OpenAI, 2023).
Despite their exceptional efficiency, LLMs generally produce textual content that’s semantically or syntactically believable however is, the truth is, factually incorrect or nonsensical (i.e., hallucinations). The fashions are optimized to generate essentially the most statistically probably sequences of phrases with an injection of randomness. They usually are not designed to train any judgment on the veracity or feasibility of the output.
In what functions can we leverage synthetic intelligence that’s good in some ways but can’t be trusted to supply reliably correct outcomes? One chance is to show their weaknesses – hallucinations and inconsistent high quality – right into a power (Terwiesch, 2023).
ChatGPT can generate ides far sooner than people. This provides them an enormous edge in developing with just a few nice concepts. For this examine the professors gave ChatGPT and the scholars the identical immediate.
I imagine I might get an enormous zero in developing with a very modern product concept.
Could you do that? How quick?
System Prompt “You are a creative entrepreneur looking to generate new product ideas. The product will target college students in the United States. It should be a physical good, not a service or software. I’d like a product that could be sold at a retail price of less than about USD 50. The ideas are just ideas. The product need not yet exist, nor may it necessarily be clearly feasible. Number all ideas and give them a name. The name and idea are separated by a colon.”
User Prompt “Please generate ten ideas as ten separate paragraphs. The idea should be expressed as a paragraph of 40-80 words.”
Do LLMs Enhance Productivity in Generating Ideas?
The reply to this query is easy. ChatGPT-4 could be very environment friendly at producing concepts. This query doesn’t require a lot precision to reply. Two hundred concepts could be generated by one human interacting with ChatGPT-4 in about quarter-hour. A human working alone can generate about 5 concepts in quarter-hour (Girotra et al., 2010). Humans working in teams do even worse. In brief, the productiveness race between people and ChatGPT isn’t even shut.
Still, the outdated saying that concepts are a dime a dozen is maybe a tad optimistic. An expert working with ChatGPT-4 can generate concepts at a fee of about 800 concepts per hour. At a value of USD 500 per hour of human effort, a determine representing an estimate of the absolutely loaded value of a talented skilled, concepts are generated at a value of about USD 0.63 every, or USD 7.50 (75 dimes) per dozen. At the time we used ChatGPT-4, the API charge for 800 concepts was about USD 20. For that very same USD 500 per hour, a human working alone, with out help from an LLM, solely generates 20 concepts at a value of roughly USD 25 every, hardly a dime a dozen. For the targeted concept technology activity itself, a human utilizing ChatGPT-4 is thus about 40 occasions extra productive than a human working alone.
What Is The Quality Distribution of the Ideas Generated Using LLMs?
A “stochastic parrot” can generate concepts, and LLMs achieve this shockingly productively. But we don’t care about amount alone. More usually, the target of concept technology is to generate a minimum of just a few really exceptionally good concepts. In most innovation settings, we’d somewhat have 10 nice concepts and 90 horrible concepts than 100 concepts of common high quality.
We, due to this fact, care in regards to the high quality distribution of the concepts, and specifically, the standard of one of the best few concepts in a pattern. Of course, we’d as properly additionally measure the imply and commonplace deviation of the three units of concepts, and we achieve this. Two helpful measures of the intense values are: What is the typical high quality of the concepts within the prime decile of every of the three samples? Which sources supplied the concepts comprising the highest 10 % of the concepts within the pooled pattern?
Chat-GPT generated the best-rated concept in our pattern, with an 11% greater buy likelihood than one of the best human concept. The common high quality of the highest decile in every of the three swimming pools additionally follows the identical sample as common high quality— seeded Chat-GPT ≻ ChatGPT ≻ Humans. Overall, we have now 400 concepts, with an equal quantity generated by ChatGPT and people. In the highest 40 concepts (prime decile) a full 35 (87.5%) are these generated by ChatGPT.
ChatGPT vs the Screen Actors Guild
The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) joined the Writers Guild (WGA) in coordinated strikes. The writers demand safety from Artificial Intelligence. Articles abound.
Hoot of the Day from the World Socialist Organization
The World Socialist Website experiences US film and television writers’ and actors’ anger reaching the boiling point
The wrestle by 11,000 movie and tv writers, members of the Writers Guild of America (WGA), is now in its fifth month, whereas 65,000 actors within the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) are nearing the tip of their second month on the picket traces.
The militant willpower of the writers and actors to battle for respectable residing requirements and a extra significant future for artwork and tradition have been met with intransigence and outright cruelty by the leisure mega-corporations united within the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). The firms have made clear their willingness to drive hundreds of artists into distress and out of the humanities and leisure business.
Similarly, with all its phony rhetoric about “solidarity,” SAG-AFTRA has prevented online game staff from becoming a member of the strike of their fellow union members and solely this week started a strike authorization vote. Moreover, using “interim agreements,” permitting a whole bunch of productions to go forward, has created a surreal scenario of inside scabbing that weakens or negates the aim of strike motion.
I mentioned this on July 24, asking If the Screen Actors and Writers Strikes Went on Forever, Who Would Care?
The strike began on July 14. Did you discover? Care? I don’t watch TV so I’m not an excellent decide.
In a podcast, Maher expressed some sympathy for the writers.
“I feel for my writers. I love my writers. I’m one of my writers. But there’s a big other side to it. And a lot of people are being hurt besides them — a lot of people who don’t make as much money as them in this bipartisan world we have where you’re just in one camp or the other, there’s no in between.
You’re either for the strike like they’re f—ing Che Guevara out there, you know, like, this is Cesar Chavez’s lettuce picking strike — or you’re with Trump. There’s no difference — there’s only two camps. And it’s much more complicated than that.”
But I aspect with Bill Maher who says writers usually are not “owed” a residing and that the strike calls for could be extreme and unrealistic.
The strike calls for of the United Auto Workers are additionally extreme and unrealistic.
United Auto Workers (UAW) Demands
- 32-hour workweek
- 46 % pay increase over 4 years
- Right to strike over plant closures
- Increased retiree advantages
- Defined pension plan for all staff
- Cost of residing changes
Bernie Sanders Comments and an Accurate Rebuttal
The irony within the UAW case is Biden is recklessly pursuing an avenue sooner than infrastructure permits and that may value UAW jobs, however enhance them elsewhere, in a extremely inflationary method. Note that Biden’s Green Energy Inflation Reduction Act Needs a Big Bailout Already “What, me worry?” Some on Twitter predict, even cheer for my demise to AI writers for my stance in opposition to the UAW. Like Bill Maher. I’m not frightened. Unlike Bill Maher, I’m so small nobody would even need to trouble to attempt to substitute me. When I began this text, I had no concept it could morph into the Screen Actors Guild or the UAW. On a each day foundation, I do not know what I’m going to put in writing about. Could AI have produced this text higher? Even in that case, wouldn’t it trouble? In retrospect, I’m horrible at producing concepts for merchandise, however fairly good at commenting on the worldwide financial information. If I’m changed by AI, so be it. No one is owed a residing. Not the Screen Actors Guild, not the UAW, and never me.
UAW Gearing Up for a Strike, It Could be Long and Nasty
On August 29, I commented UAW Gearing Up for a Strike, It Could be Long and Nasty
Bloomberg estimates the UAW calls for would add $80 billion to prices.
If the Big Three automakers gave into UAW demand, they’d all go bankrupt in brief order.
The truth is, EVs are simpler to supply. That means fewer staff. But the employees need safety from shedding their jobs. The SAG needs safety from ChatGPT.
It’s actually the identical story. Change occurs. It’s disruptive.
Biden’s Green Energy Inflation Reduction Act Needs a Big Bailout Already
The irony within the UAW case is Biden is recklessly pursuing an avenue sooner than infrastructure permits and that may value UAW jobs, however enhance them elsewhere, in a extremely inflationary method.
“What, me worry?”
Some on Twitter predict, even cheer for my demise to AI writers for my stance in opposition to the UAW.
Like Bill Maher. I’m not frightened. Unlike Bill Maher, I’m so small nobody would even need to trouble to attempt to substitute me.
When I began this text, I had no concept it could morph into the Screen Actors Guild or the UAW. On a each day foundation, I do not know what I’m going to put in writing about. Could AI have produced this text higher? Even in that case, wouldn’t it trouble?
In retrospect, I’m horrible at producing concepts for merchandise, however fairly good at commenting on the worldwide financial information.
If I’m changed by AI, so be it. No one is owed a residing. Not the Screen Actors Guild, not the UAW, and never me.